Economic forecasting is the process of attempting to predict the future condition of the economy using a combination of widely followed indicators. Government officials and business managers use economic forecasts to determine fiscal and monetary policies and plan future operating activities.
Figures for Global Economic Forecasts - 22/Q2
The global economy once again faces extremely high uncertainty, due to a combination of geopolitical, supply conditions, and pandemic risks. The global economy has faced a new round of headwinds following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, while the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over. *
Facts:
The global economic outlook has worsened substantially since February 2022, with lower expected growth and higher uncertainty. In the baseline scenario, global real GDP growth is expected to decline to 1.8-3.6% in 2022 and to 1.8-4% in 2023, after 6% growth in 2021.
Global inflation is expected to increase to 6.8-9% in 2022, before declining to 3.8 - 6.3% in 2023. Global supply constraints have tightened substantially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine with big increases in energy and commodity prices, worsened by stronger pandemic restrictions in China.
At the same time, global demand reductions due to the same pandemic restrictions in China and Asia more generally and due to higher global uncertainty can alleviate tightness of supply constraints.
The main risk facing the global economy is a combination of stagnation in economic activity combined with high inflation (stagflation). The risks of a resurgent COVID-19 pandemic have declined but remain significant. Other key risks include a Chinese hard landing and a worsening trade war between the US and China.
Outlook:
as a result of the following developments, revisions shows a negative outlook:
predictions from Advanced Economies
predictions from Emerging and Developing Economies
đ Global Economic Forecasts - 22/Q2 Report:
Global Economic Forecasts: Q2 2022 by Euro Monitor - to download
* for more on the figures please visit the Global Economic Outlook: Q2 2022 page of Euromonitor